This is a machine translation (slightly corrected) of the original text in Polish published here.
Grigory Yudin - professor of political philosophy at the Moscow School of Social and Economic Sciences (MGIMO); teaches political philosophy and social theory at the Moscow School of Social and Economic Sciences and the Moscow School of Economics; holds a doctorate in philosophy from the Moscow School of Economics and is currently a Ph.D. in the Politics Department of the New School of Social Research in New York; author of the book "Public Opinion: the Power of Numbers"; publishes in numerous foreign titles (including Open Democracy); author of many media and scientific articles devoted to the Russian political scene
[ŁUKASZ ROGOJSZ] Weren't you afraid to give this interview? In Russia, you can get into a lot of trouble today for talking about the invasion of Ukraine, not along the lines of the Kremlin.
[PROF. GRIGORY YUDIN] I've heard that question so many times...
… You have a ready answer. So I'm listening.
In my opinion, we are all in very serious danger right now. I mean Europe, at least Europe. We all need to worry about our safety. So when I hear this question, I would like to turn it around and ask the questioners, because at this point you should be afraid.
That's your answer. What answer do your compatriots have? Do they feel gagged when it comes to freedom of speech on the subject of war or the Kremlin's policy towards Ukraine?
The atmosphere is very tense. People either completely displace what's happening and prefer not to talk about it, or they get aggressive about it. In the latter case, however, I would not call it a conversation, but rather an agitation. Because a conversation implies a discussion.
And also feedback.
That's it. And at this point in Russia, it is practically impossible. People are very divided about what is happening. Usually, they prefer to speak only to those who share their views. But when they have to deal with people who don't think so, they just prefer not to bring it up.
What about young Russians? It is a sociological regularity that they are usually critical of power and the status quo. Putin silenced them or pulled them over to his side?
Currently, there is a lot of pressure on the younger generation in Russia. Putin knows that this is his weakness, and he is also aware that he will need them to die for him on the battlefield. In addition, for several years we have been observing the growing gap between the young and the older generation. Young people are not satisfied with what is happening and it is no secret that Putin is losing control over them. This process has been going on for several years and is one of the reasons for the beginning of the ongoing military campaign. And among the elders, support for the war is overwhelming. More than opposition to war among young people, young people are more divided on this issue.
Are they afraid that Putin will make Russia become a world pariah for years, perhaps even decades?
I think so. They feel directly affected by what is happening. Young people are more involved in global communication, information flow, and cultural exchange. This is their world. They not only do not want to lose him but also the atrocities committed by Russia are foreign to them. They are shocked by all of this as are all Europeans. The point is that, at the same time, young Russians are the most apolitical group in our society.
In general, people in Russian society are very skeptical about the possibility of any change in politics, it is something like collective common sense, but young people are in the lead. However, Putin was able to regain some of this generation thanks to the war campaign in Ukraine. This part of the younger generation is strongly militarized.
How are young people in opposition to the government and Putin coping with the current situation? Due to the actions of the authorities, the world they had known so far disappeared within a few days.
Some of them still displace it, it is one of the coping strategies. The strategy is quite common among all Russians. The Russians believe that all this will end soon and normality will return soon. The Kremlin's propaganda, at least up to a point, was committed to duplicating this scenario. But there are also those who have the feeling you mentioned - losing the world as they knew it. Mentally, they are in a really bad situation.
What does that mean exactly?
They are absolutely devastated by this. I know many such people myself. It's hard for me to describe how much pain, depression, and despair this situation has caused among millions of Russians. Many of them would like to do something but don't really know what. Every day I get messages from people I don't know and who have never had contact with me but have e.g. seen me on YouTube. They ask me, "Do you think it would make sense if I committed suicide? Would that make a difference?" Or: "If I set fire to myself in Red Square, would it do something? How do you judge if it would affect people?" Many of the people who ask me these questions are young people.
What is happening in Russia today hurt the Kremlin's opponents the most?
Yes, because they understand the present situation better than others. They also have a better understanding of the prospects for Russia. Those who were originally apolitical - I emphasize once again: they are the majority of the Russian population - even if they are devastated by what is happening, they still do not have the knowledge to understand all the consequences of the situation. It was also felt very hard by those who were involved in global communication, no matter if on an economic, cultural, or other level. A large part of them fled from Russia. We are talking about over a million people, and this exodus continues.
Do the Russians know what is happening in Ukraine? The government controls the media and has blocked social networks. Has an alternative flow of information been created?
Public opinion in the West thinks the Russians know nothing about this war, but that's not true. Maybe a small percentage does not actually have this knowledge, but the vast majority of Russians either know or have the opportunity to find out. If you want to know what is happening in Ukraine, you will find out. It's no secret.
What about the Kremlin's information monopoly?
Shutting down social media has certainly had an effect, but people are using VPNs. The government itself uses them because it publishes entries on Twitter, although Twitter has been blocked throughout Russia. However, many Russians still quite consciously choose not to know anything about the war in Ukraine, because this knowledge is too difficult for them, and too stressful. They avoid this information.
Government propaganda will not go away.
From these accounts, you'll learn that everything is under control. War correspondents are in Ukraine, close to the events they even show, but dominate a very neat picture of this war - no damage, everything under control, you feel like you are watching a movie in the cinema. This gives people the impression of normalcy.
On the subject of war, the Kremlin placed great emphasis on propaganda. To what extent have they been successful?
Some have certainly succeeded, but people overestimate the impact of propaganda. The belief that the Russians are completely brainwashed by Kremlin propaganda is incorrect.
They don't believe propaganda?
Russians do not believe anyone or anything. This is a fundamental issue. Paradoxically, this is a message that has been distributed by government propaganda for 22 years: the world is a place where everyone lies, and there is no truth.
So the Kremlin is also lying?
Of course. They say it straight: our propaganda is also lying, but we give you a version, a certain narrative that is more convenient for you, so you'd better swallow it. This is the essence of propaganda - it makes everyone believe that nothing will ever change, that change is beyond the possibilities of society, so you should accept the current state of affairs. Propaganda explains to them why it is perfectly normal to accept this. It normalizes their lives.
Do people in Russia feel helpless?
Absolutely. Helplessness is overwhelming. The very idea that anything can be changed in the world is completely rejected by the Russians. If you say that you want to change something, or influence something, you will be laughed at by your friends. There is a belief that nothing can be changed in the world, so the only thing you can do is take care of yourself, take care of your interests, and earn money. Propaganda helps explain why this feeling of helplessness is perfectly normal.
It brings relief to the people.
Yes. He says it's the same everywhere. It comforts people, and allows them to come to terms with it.
How has this war changed and is still changing the attitude of Russians towards Ukraine and Ukrainians? At first, Putin consistently repeated that they were one nation, brothers and sisters, but later began to call them Nazis, criminals, and barbarians.
This is a difficult question because in Russia there is a belief that Ukrainians are basically good people... because they are Russians, the same people as us. On the other hand, Russians believe that Ukrainians used to have their own crazy ideas that keep them from realizing that we are one nation, so we have to let them get rid of these ideas, and then they will be happy, happy with us because they are Russians like us. In this way, the Kremlin convinces the Russians that we must reach these good Ukrainians by eliminating the Nazi element and the artificially created identity along the way.
There have been leaders in the history of Europe with similar rhetoric.
Yes, this is the most dangerous part of the Kremlin's message, because it leads directly to the purges, the idea of cleansing the entire Ukrainian nation.
One thing puzzles me - after all, there are a whole lot of mixed Russian-Ukrainian families. How did this war change their lives and their everyday relationships?
This is a very painful topic. Lots of Russians have Ukrainian ancestors and family or at least friends in Ukraine. These ties have been broken, many of them, really.
Why?
Partly because Russia is a very atomized society. Everyone lives their own life. There are very few close ties in society. In theory, Russians value family values, because it is one of the things you can rely on in a generally hostile and hostile world, but even in families, these ties are often shaky and unstable. We have a huge divorce rate, for example. This may explain why such an attack was capable of destroying relations between Russians and Ukrainians. I know many stories of people who get calls from Ukraine. The Ukrainians are trying to explain to them what is really going on there, but the Russians do not want to hear it.
Or they don't believe them.
This is a bit different. They just don't want to hear it.
I heard stories that the Russians did not believe their Ukrainian relatives who said that, for example, they were being bombed by the Russian air force.
Yes, but that's something else. The Russians don't want to hear about it. It's not that they don't believe it, it's that they are trying to force it out of consciousness entirely. Because it's excruciatingly stressful. To imagine the Ukrainians, imagine what is happening there, what their life is like - it is completely unbearable. Imagine someone telling you that your army is doing all these horrible things to your friends and family. What are you going to do then? The only thing you have in mind is that you are completely helpless, you do not believe in the possibility of any change. It hits people, so they prefer not to talk to the Ukrainians at all. This is a common reaction among many Russians - if there is something annoying, avoid it, completely displace it. Including, unfortunately, my friends and family in Ukraine.
But there are probably Russians who are trying to maintain such relations?
Many people say that they would like to maintain their ties with the Ukrainians, they have a lot of sympathy for their situation, but for very obvious and natural reasons, the Ukrainians are very bitter and bitter. Besides, it is very difficult to find the right words to address the Ukrainians in this situation. Lots of people try to do this, but what can you tell them? The situation is shocking. Even in my family, there are people who don't want to call Ukrainian relatives because they don't know what to tell them. And if they find the right words, they are immediately rejected by the Ukrainians as inappropriate. Quite frankly, it's a terrifying situation.
As a Russian, but also a scientist and lecturer, do you think that everything that has been going on for over two months between Russians and Ukrainians may be forgiven and forgotten in the future?
I do not think so. I think this is a disaster. When viewed through the prism of Russian history, this is an absolute disaster. This is the most suicidal war Russia has ever started. We've cut the most important ties we've ever had. I don't think it will ever be healed.
Time heals old wounds. Especially if it is accompanied by a desire to compensate for the harm done.
Today, Ukrainians draw strength from building their national identity in opposition to Russia. It will go on for generations to come. We Russians could have avoided it. We did not have to push the Ukrainians to shape this kind of identity. We are responsible for it. It will take a complete change, restructuring, and reinvention of Russia to find a different path, a different approach to the Ukrainians.
Is it possible?
I still want to believe that, at least to some extent, yes. Perhaps then we will be able to repair at least some of the damage done now. However, in general, I consider this situation to be a total disaster. And it's not just about the Ukrainians themselves. We also have a fairy tale about Slavic brotherhood, repeated for ages. In the meantime, listen to what people in Eastern Europe say about us. Where is this Slavic brotherhood? It won't come back.
You're not surprised, are you?
No, but that's not the end of the negative consequences. Let's even take your Polish example. Russia tried to ridicule and prove that this entire Polish narrative about Russian imperialism is nonsense. And who was right? It is true that I do not think that Russian imperialism is undoubtedly a threat to Poland, but people who believe that today have had evidence of it. Therefore, this war has a devastating impact on the cultural relations with nations that are historically closest to us.
Even with Belarusians. Belarusians very clearly - at least the most progressive and active part of society, the Belarusian elite - say today: we hate you because you are de facto occupying our country by force and we know that you will do the same to us as you do to the Ukrainians now. That's why I say this war is a complete disaster.
The truth is that after 2014, you created the Ukrainian national and collective identity. Based entirely on aversion towards Russia - towards the Kremlin's policy and towards Putin. Russia, with its aggressive actions, has in fact created the modern Ukrainian state.
Russia's entire policy towards Ukraine was idiotic. Putin strengthened and further strengthens these elements of Ukrainian identity, which are hostile to Russia. These elements were - it is natural in the case of countries that have Big Brother next to each other - but they should not be strengthened. It was necessary to look for other ways to reach the Ukrainians, which would make Russia positive and attractive for them again.
It's hard for me to imagine Putin pursuing such a policy.
Exactly. This is not the way Putin thinks. He only believes in force, violence, and invasion. Already in 2014, these relations were very bad, because there was a perception that Russia was trying to interfere in Ukraine's domestic policy. But back then it was still more about Putin himself. In addition, there were very difficult relations between the west and east of Ukraine and the pro-Russian lobby in the eastern part of the country. Putin tried to strengthen these tendencies as much as possible. Importantly, however, the Ukrainians still distinguished between Putin and the Russians.
Today we should seek this distinction with a candle.
We had anti-Russian sentiments in Ukraine before. Those of us who visited Ukraine after 2014 felt it. It might not be overwhelming, but it was noticeable. It is completely understandable. However, it was still something that could be fixed. Now it is much more difficult. We will have to do it anyway because Ukraine will not disappear, it will be next to Russia anyway. So we will have to deal with it anyway, but convincing Ukrainians that there is some way to other relations will be extremely difficult.
Possible at all?
I still hope that when things finally settle down, taking responsibility - the fair share of that responsibility, neither too little nor too much - will help identify who is responsible for initiating this aggression and why Russians as a society should not be blamed for it. But it will be very difficult. The current situation is much more complicated than it was eight years ago.
We also need to talk about Western sanctions against Russia. Are the Russians worried about them?
Many people are aware of this, but try not to think about it. This is part of the displacement procedure. However, the sanctions did not change much in the everyday life of Russians. The ruble exchange rate has rebuilt and is more or less at the pre-war level. Much was said about Western companies withdrawing from Russia. This is also not entirely true. Some of them just boasted about it. Anyway, if you go to the mall, you'll see messages in shop windows that closed stores will reopen soon. This contributes to the popular belief that normality will be quickly restored.
In one of the Twitter entries, you called it "the theory of several months".
Exactly. And in fact, some of these brands or companies are returning to Russia. Even yesterday (the interview took place on April 28 - editorial note), OBI resumed its activity. Now we hear that IKEA is also going to open up. These things contribute to the feeling that everything is slowly returning to normal. But why? Because Putin always gets what he wants, regardless of the odds. This is an incredibly strong conviction among Russians - no matter what happens, Putin always gets what he wants. He's the most powerful man in the world, and if he wants something, he'll get it. It is the same with Russia - things will return to normal because Putin wants it.
Comfortable.
Not only convenient. This belief is justified. It was like that all the time. How many times he hasn't tried, so many times he has succeeded. Putin has gotten into some terrible things, so why not bake this time too? Why would he not defeat the West?
So when you are walking along the street of a large Russian city, it is impossible to notice that the country is at war?
Absolutely not. Of course, some signs of the so-called special military operation are noticeable. If you are careful enough, I am sure you will notice. For example, if you go underground, you will see advertisements offering money for what they call "risky work". Maybe not in Moscow, but in other big cities you will also see the symbols of "Z", that is the Russian swastika. At least from this, you can infer that something important is happening in the country. But will you immediately think that the country is at war? Not really. People invest a lot of effort in not thinking about it, suppressing it completely, and living their daily lives. People try desperately not to notice when something terrible is going on.
Let's go back to your "several months theory". What will happen if this time has passed and normality does not return - the war will not end or even despite its end, Western sanctions are maintained?
First of all, as already mentioned, part of this theory already works. Some Western brands are already returning to Russia. In Russia, there is a belief that those who do not return will in fact punish themselves in the first place because their competition will benefit from it. If, after these few months, full-scale normalization does not occur, we can move on to the "theory of the next few months", but it becomes more likely - you can already see it in the media - a reformulation of the whole subject of war.
Re-wording for what?
This is a very dangerous prospect. Today the media talks about the new Great Patriotic War, the continuation of the previous Great Patriotic War (in the Kremlin’s words this is part of World War II, in which the Soviet Union and the Allies fought against the Third Reich - editor's note). This relationship was noticeable in the media before, but now you can see that the emphasis is on it. The voices that our country is under severe threat are becoming stronger and stronger, so the entire nation must fight back. So on the one hand, we have a narrative about a quick recovery to normality, but at the same time, a narrative emerges in which the entire West is against us, so we have to fight to the end. This is a prerequisite for general mobilization because we will have to send much more forces to Ukraine than today.
Putin is afraid of this mobilization because it would be badly received in society. In turn, the loss of support from the masses is his eternal fear.
This is not what you are really afraid of. He doesn't believe in public support. This is crucial in the case of Putin: he does not believe in the people, he does not believe that the people exist at all.
So who is in charge?
Units that can always be bribed. And if you can't, then you have to offer more money. It was the only thing he had ever believed in.
Maybe he believes he can bribe the whole of society?
That's true because that's basically what he's been doing up to now. Nevertheless, he certainly does not believe in the support of the masses. He believes that people don't want to mess with him. In his concept of power, it is not about society, but about controlling specific people who could rebel against it. Putin is not afraid of losing public support because, in his opinion, society does not exist. He is afraid of losing the loyalty of very specific individuals who would later, instrumentalize society, and get him out of the game.
People in his immediate circle could get rid of him?
This is possible because the entire system is under tremendous pressure right now. This is an unprecedented situation. I've never seen anything like it. If this pressure continues, cracks will appear in the system and some people may turn against Putin. Interestingly, Putin does not believe that the threat to him can come from within. He believes that it can only come from outside. He is firmly convinced, for example, that the only meaning for the United States is to kill him.
Why does he not believe that the threat can also come from within?
Because everyone on the inside who wants to threaten him is only a projection of an external threat. He was bribed and sent to kill him. Putin does not believe in such a thing as the opposition. By the opposition, I mean people who truly and sincerely care about the good of the country and are still against Putin. It is impossible for Putin, something like this cannot happen. Either you support the president and the country's welfare, or you are against it, which means that you are a spy and traitor sent from outside.
It's absurd.
Maybe, but it justifies why Putin has always feared revolution. At the same time, he does not understand the revolution as a universal social uprising - he believes that there has not been even one such revolution in the history of mankind - only as a conspiracy from outside. He doesn't believe you can disagree with someone. The only things he believes in are war and force. Foreign states are that force. So when a social upheaval breaks out in a country, it means that some country used force against Russia. And this is what Putin is afraid of.
Is he not afraid that this war is costing the people of his closest circle too dearly and that it may change their view of Putin, politics, and the state?
If we look at how things have been so far, it has never gone that way. Once again: Putin has been doing unimaginable things for years - tearing off the territories of neighboring countries, killing his political opponents, oppressing the entire society, and even killing his opponents in other countries. He never suffered any penalty for it. The people around him are deeply convinced that this man is god, that he is almighty, and that whatever he wants, he will get it.
Will they stay with him until the end?
Absolutely. When in the past they thought it was too much, it turned out that it was never too much. Putin has always emerged victorious from these situations. Now they don't think as you said, just the opposite - that the reward will be greater than ever.
As?
It will be greater than ever because we will break the West and become incredibly richer, incredibly stronger. But for that to happen, we must achieve a great victory. This is the way these people think. Any other way of thinking is just too dangerous. For themselves. Because if you start to doubt it, you're already half a traitor.
In the West, a very hot topic in the context of the Kremlin is the numerous threats that Russia will use its nuclear arsenal. Is it a real threat or is it just a game and a show of strength?
This is a completely real threat. Don't underestimate him. They put absolutely everything at stake. In addition, they were always calculating what would have happened if we had acted really aggressively. They also conducted nuclear escalation calculations. There is a strong belief that the West will never dare to confront it if intimidated by nuclear weapons. More specifically: there is a strong belief that Art. 5. The North Atlantic Treaty will not work, for example, no one will defend Poland if they are intimidated by the use of a nuclear arsenal.
NATO leaders, led by the United States, have been repeating something completely different in Ukraine since the beginning of the war.
According to the Kremlin, the West is bluffing - the entire NATO is one big bluff that does not exist in practice - and no one will fight for Poland. The French did not fight for Poland in 1939, so why would they fight now? Such a calculation would assume the collapse of NATO and a victory for Russia. That is why the Kremlin believes that nuclear blackmail is a good strategy.
What if the West is not frightened by nuclear blackmail as the Kremlin dreamed it to be?
If the West proved strong enough to engage in a nuclear conflict and Putin saw that it was losing the confrontation, it surely would see no point in letting the world as we know it survives. If he can't be king, why should the world survive? Therefore, I believe that when he talks about the use of nuclear weapons, he says it quite seriously and we should not underestimate it. Of course, this is a strategy of blackmail and the accompanying calculation that things will not go so far, because the West will give up and give Putin back Ukraine, Poland, and all of Eastern Europe. However, if this calculation turned out to be wrong and Putin saw that he was losing, he would by no means come to terms with this defeat.